So which four teams will finally make it to the semi-finals of the IPL 2009? Delhi is the only very obvious name having already scored 18 points. With a 99.99% confidence one could also say that the Chennai Super Kings are in. Even if Chennai lose their last match to the King's XI Punjab, they will be at 15 points. Out of Bangalore, Deccan and Punjab only two teams can score 16 points. If Rajasthan defeat the Kolkata Knight Riders they will be tied with Chennai on 15 points but there is such a wide chasm in the Net Run Rate (NRR) of the two teams that it will require a super miracle for Rajasthan to overtake Chennai.
So two spots gone - Delhi and Chennai. What about the remaining two? I have created a case by case table. Click here to see the table. There are 12 possible scenarios as of now. Amongst these 12 scenarios, Punjab and Bangalore each feature 6 times. So both these teams have a 50% probability of reaching the IPL 2009 semi finals. Deccan Chargers feature 8 times, thanks to an advantage they have because of their net run rate. That means the Hyderabad team have a 67% probability of making it to the semi-finals. And no, don't count Shane Warne out as yet - Rajasthan feature 4 times which means they have a one in three chance of reaching the IPL semi-finals.